Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Angel ZerpaPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Abreu homered to left center (438 feet).2–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 8Massey homered to right center (408 feet).1–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Alvarez doubled to left, Peña scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Witt Jr. homered to left center (427 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Velázquez homered to center (440 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Melendez scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.6 – 5.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −5 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +86 Elo | HOU 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3045–27 | Road vs home | 26–4629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.