Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Noda homered to right center (400 feet).4–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Langeliers homered to right (370 feet).3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Allen singled to left, Smith scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rooker homered to left center (442 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.9 – 5.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1423 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | OAK: Mason Miller: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +132 Elo | HOU 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 3020–52 | Road vs home | 37–3516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 1–9 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.