Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to right, Noda scored.2–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 9Brown singled to center, Gelof scored, Noda to third.1–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 7Tucker homered to right center (396 feet).0–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Diaz doubled to right, Brantley scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Bregman homered to left center (358 feet).0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 30–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Alvarez homered to right (422 feet), Altuve scored and Peña scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Fair odds
- HOU -146
- OAK +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.6 – 5.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | −9 | OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +93 Elo | HOU 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–52 | Road vs home | 37–3718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 3–9 HOU in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.