Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Brown doubled to left, Noda scored.6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 5Peña doubled to left, Dubón scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Kemp homered to right center (367 feet).5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Brown doubled to center, Gelof scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Tucker grounded out to second, Altuve scored, Bregman to second, Alvarez to third.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Langeliers homered to left (424 feet), Noda scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Noda singled to right, Gelof scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 69%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 4.7 – 5.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +8 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +139 Elo | HOU 68.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 3021–52 | Road vs home | 37–3617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OAK 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.