Houston Astros at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Royals- Logan PorterBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9J. Abreu grounded out to first, Bregman scored.8–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 27–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–10
- 9Alvarez doubled to left, Altuve scored, Bregman to third.7–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–10
- 8Porter homered to left center (400 feet).6–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 7Pratto hit sacrifice fly to center, Isbel scored.6–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–8
- 7Blanco grounded into fielder's choice to third, Massey scored, Isbel to second, Isbel safe at third on throwing error by third baseman Bregman.6–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Isbel reached on bunt single to first, Velázquez scored, Massey to second.6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul6–6
- 7Altuve homered to left (346 feet), Peña scored and Dubón scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 6Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Pratto scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Velázquez walked, Garcia scored, Melendez to second, Witt Jr. to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 43–5
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Fair odds
- HOU -121
- KC +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.5 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +18 | HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +67 Elo | HOU 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3045–28 | Road vs home | 27–4629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 0–1 KC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.