Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Cedric MullinsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- John MeansPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Astros- Jose AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mullins homered to right center (425 feet), O'Hearn scored and Hays scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 8Maldonado homered to center (430 feet).5–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7J. Abreu homered to center (425 feet).5–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Mullins doubled to right, Rutschman scored, Mullins to third, O'Hearn thrown out at home.5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Rutschman doubled to left, Henderson scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Altuve doubled to shortstop, Dubón scored and Peña scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Peña singled to left, McCormick scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6McCormick singled to center, Tucker scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5O'Hearn singled to center, Mateo scored and Henderson scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.0 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +6 | BAL: John Means: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +14 Elo | HOU 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 1st of 3048–26 | Road vs home | 38–3719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.