Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4
- Lucas GiolitoPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Angel ZerpaPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Witt Jr. scored on error, Melendez safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Freeman.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Olivares grounded out to second, Melendez scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 4Witt Jr. singled to right, Waters scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Laureano scored, Giménez to second.2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Giménez singled to center, J. Naylor scored, Laureano to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Velázquez homered to left (420 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 52%
- Fair odds
- CLE -106
- KC +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.1 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1434 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −1 | CLE: Lucas Giolito: team allows 1.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +14 Elo | CLE 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–44 | Road vs home | 30–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 7–5 KC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.