Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bo Naylor homered to right center (400 feet).6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 7Giménez tripled to center, Calhoun scored.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 6Kwan tripled to right, Giménez scored and Bo Naylor scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5Cropley hit sacrifice fly to center, Velázquez scored.2–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5Loftin reached on infield single to second, Olivares scored, Velázquez to third.2–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Melendez scored on error, Velázquez safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Naylor, Olivares safe at third on error.2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5J. Naylor singled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 3Loftin reached on infield single to shortstop, Melendez scored, Velázquez to second, Olivares to third.0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Melendez singled to left, Isbel scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Melendez homered to right center (410 feet), Witt Jr. scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Fair odds
- CLE -108
- KC +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.0 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +16 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Steven Cruz: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +30 Elo | CLE 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 29–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 7–4 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.