Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Massey scored, Waters to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.4–6
- 8Massey scored, Waters to third on passed ball by Bo Naylor.4–6
- 8Waters doubled to left, Blanco scored and Velázquez scored, Massey to third.4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 8Massey walked, Isbel scored, Velázquez to second, Blanco to third.4–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 44–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Velázquez homered to left (425 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Arias hit sacrifice fly to center, Calhoun scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4Arias homered to right center (394 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Melendez tripled to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Straw hit sacrifice fly to center, Brennan scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Bo Naylor doubled to left, Giménez scored, Brennan to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Fair odds
- CLE -110
- KC +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.1 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | CLE: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +44 Elo | CLE 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 28–4729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.