Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón singled to right, Diaz scored.1–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Peña doubled to center, Dubón scored, Altuve to third.1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Santander singled to left, Rutschman scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -101
- HOU +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.3 – 5.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −4 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +27 Elo | BAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–26 | Road vs home | 38–3920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.