Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Chas McCormickBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCormick homered to right center (377 feet), Bregman scored and J. Abreu scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Isbel singled to center, Loftin scored and Porter scored.7–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 15–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Pratto grounded out to first, Olivares scored, Porter to second, Loftin to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 2J. Abreu homered to right (379 feet).4–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 1Alvarez doubled to left, Peña scored.4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Loftin hit sacrifice fly to center, Melendez scored, Olivares to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Olivares doubled to left, Velázquez scored, Melendez to third.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Melendez singled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Velázquez to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Witt Jr. tripled to center, Garcia scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 65%
- Fair odds
- HOU -147
- KC +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.8 – 5.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +105 Elo | HOU 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 30th of 3020–55 | Road vs home | 39–3920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 2–1 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.