Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Maldonado homered to left (379 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–3
- 7Brantley singled to center, Tucker scored, J. Abreu to third.7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7J. Abreu singled to left, Alvarez scored, Tucker to third.6–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 7Tucker doubled to right, Bregman scored, Alvarez to third.5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Suárez singled to left, Caballero scored and Raleigh scored, Crawford to second.4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Dubón homered to left center (397 feet), J. Abreu scored and Brantley scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Alvarez homered to center (442 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Crawford homered to right (400 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.1 – 4.4 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −16 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3047–30 | Road vs home | 42–3412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–9 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.