Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Heim singled to left, García scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Garver singled to right, García scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Fair odds
- TEX -110
- SEA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +18 Elo | TEX 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–36 | Road vs home | 48–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–6 TEX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.