Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4
- Paul BlackburnPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford homered to right (405 feet).7–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Soderstrom hit sacrifice fly to center, Langeliers scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Langeliers tripled to center, A. Díaz scored.6–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 7Raleigh scored on Lucas wild pitch, Hernández to third on wild pitch by Lucas.6–0
- 7Raleigh scored on Lucas wild pitch, Hernández to third on wild pitch by Lucas.6–0
- 7Hernández doubled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.5–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 7Raleigh singled to left, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Crawford doubled to right, Moore scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Kelenic singled to left, Hernández scored, Kelenic to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Kelenic singled to left, Suárez scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- OAK +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +12 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +91 Elo | SEA 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 3041–35 | Road vs home | 24–5130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 10–1 OAK in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.