San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Azocar homered to left center (424 feet), Cooper scored and Batten scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 6Rooker homered to left (387 feet).5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Campusano doubled to left, Soto scored, Bogaerts to third.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Noda hit a ground rule double, Ruiz scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Langeliers homered to left center (381 feet).4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to center, Batten scored and Cooper scored, Azocar to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Soto scored on Newcomb wild pitch, Bogaerts to second on wild pitch by Newcomb.2–0
- 1Soto scored on Newcomb wild pitch, Bogaerts to second on wild pitch by Newcomb.2–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to right center (403 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +9 | SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +51 Elo | SD 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–42 | Road vs home | 24–4730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.