San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gelof homered to left (398 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Sullivan reached on infield single to first, Campusano scored on throwing error by first baseman Noda and Grisham scored on error, Sullivan to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Soto walked, Sullivan scored, Tatis Jr. to second, Kim to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball 43–1
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball 32–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Noda hit sacrifice fly to center, Allen scored.2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Bogaerts singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Soto hit sacrifice fly to right, Kim scored, Tatis Jr. to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- OAK +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1426 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +8 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OAK: Mason Miller: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +37 Elo | SD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3031–42 | Road vs home | 24–4830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 1–0 OAK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.