Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Miguel RojasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Outman homered to center (410 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 8Martinez singled to right, Freeman scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Suárez grounded into double play, third to second to first, Raleigh scored, Hernández out at second.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Hernández singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.4–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Martinez singled to center, Muncy scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 6Muncy tripled to right, Smith scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Rojas homered to left center (370 feet), Heyward scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Suárez homered to left (368 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- LAD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.6 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +2 Elo | LAD 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–31 | Road vs home | 41–308th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.