Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Schanuel singled to center, Phillips scored, Adams to second.8–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 11Grichuk scored on error, Adams safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Suárez, Phillips safe at third on error.7–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 11Grichuk singled to center, Paris scored, Escobar to third.6–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 16–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 10Rodríguez homered to center (402 feet), Canzone scored.5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 10Drury homered to left (387 feet), Adams scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 4O'Hoppe homered to left (368 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2O'Hoppe homered to left center (378 feet), Moustakas scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Raleigh homered to left center (388 feet), Rodríguez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +10 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +99 Elo | SEA 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 39–299th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.