Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Patrick SandovalPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Suárez homered to right center (376 feet).0–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Crawford scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 4Crawford doubled to center, France scored, Haggerty scored and Moore scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Moore doubled to left, Suárez scored, France thrown out at home.0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1France singled to left, Hernández scored, Suárez to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Suárez singled to right, Rodríguez scored, Hernández to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −5 | LAA: Patrick Sandoval: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +92 Elo | SEA 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 39–3010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 5–6 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.