Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Brett PhillipsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew WantzPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Hernández reached on infield single to second, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Raleigh singled to right, France scored, Rodríguez to third.2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Drury doubled to left, Neto scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Rodríguez doubled to left, Rojas scored, Crawford to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Phillips homered to right (354 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Fair odds
- SEA -128
- LAA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.5 – 5.0 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | LAA: Andrew Wantz (no track record yet) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +78 Elo | SEA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 40–3010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAA 5–7 SEA in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.