Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Chris TaylorBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Bryce MillerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Canzone struck out swinging, Hernández scored on Kelly wild pitch, Raleigh to second on wild pitch by Kelly.6–2
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging6–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 11Hernández singled to right, Rosario scored and Taylor scored, Heyward to third.6–1
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 11Taylor singled to left, Muncy scored and Smith scored, Rosario to second.4–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 11Muncy singled to center, Betts scored, Smith to second.2–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 10Ford singled to center, Rojas scored.1–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10Wong hit sacrifice fly to right, Rosario scored, Taylor to third.1–0
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball 20–0
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 45%
- Fair odds
- SEA -101
- LAD +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | −10 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3041–31 | Road vs home | 41–3110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–0 SEA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.