Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Ryan NodaBatting1-2
- JP SearsPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez singled to left, Crawford scored, Hernández to third.5–0
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 34–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Torrens doubled to left, Caballero scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Caballero homered to left (437 feet), Moore scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Crawford singled to right, Haggerty scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -123
- OAK +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +94 Elo | SEA 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 24–5030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 9–1 OAK in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.