San Diego Padres at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rooker homered to left (383 feet).10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Soto homered to right center (407 feet), Azocar scored, Batten scored and Profar scored.10–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–0
- 7Soto homered to right center (411 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.6–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Batten singled to left, Bogaerts scored and Campusano scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Rosario reached on infield single to first, Bogaerts scored, Batten to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 4Campusano singled to left, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Fair odds
- SD -115
- OAK +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.5 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +2 | SD: Nick Martinez: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: Joe Boyle (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +91 Elo | SD 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.730th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3032–42 | Road vs home | 24–4930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 2–0 OAK in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.