Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Jason HeywardBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan YarbroughPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Outman homered to center (402 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 4Heyward singled to right, Rosario scored, Barnes to second.5–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Crawford singled to left, Suárez scored, France to second, Ford to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 2Barnes homered to left (369 feet), Wong scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Wong singled to left, Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Heyward homered to right (340 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Fair odds
- SEA -103
- LAD +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | LAD: Shelby Miller (no track record yet) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +2 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3042–31 | Road vs home | 41–3211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–0 SEA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.