Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Evan CarterBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dane DunningPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez singled to right, Crawford scored, Raleigh to third.5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Rojas walked, Suárez scored, Canzone to second, Kelenic to third.4–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 44–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–8
- 6Raleigh homered to right center (419 feet), Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.3–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 5Garver singled to center, García scored and Jung scored, Heim to second.0–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Heim walked, Lowe scored, García to second, Jung to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 40–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 30–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to first, Carter scored, Seager out at second.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Carter homered to right center (400 feet), Heim scored and Taveras scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Seager homered to right center (402 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- SEA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 5.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −6 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Dane Dunning: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +16 Elo | TEX 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–35 | Road vs home | 47–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–5 TEX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.