Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- George KirbyPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rooker homered to center (410 feet), Brown scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–1
- 5Canzone doubled to left, France scored and Suárez scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 5Raleigh homered to right (398 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Rodríguez homered to right center (389 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Gelof homered to center (408 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Canzone homered to right (448 feet), France scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Fair odds
- SEA -125
- OAK +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +93 Elo | SEA 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3042–35 | Road vs home | 24–5230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 11–1 OAK in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.