Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suárez singled to left, Hernández scored, Kelenic to second.8–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–9
- 7Kelenic singled to left, Raleigh scored, Hernández to third.7–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 16–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 7Hernández singled to center, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to second.6–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 6Carter homered to right center (421 feet), Garver scored.5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–7
- 6Haggerty tripled to left, Kelenic scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–7
- 6Suárez hit sacrifice fly to center, Raleigh scored.4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 6Kelenic grounded into fielder's choice to second, Rodríguez scored, Hernández out at second, Raleigh to third.3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Semien homered to center (411 feet).2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Taveras homered to center (403 feet), Garver scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 52%
- Fair odds
- TEX -111
- SEA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.0 – 5.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +2 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +11 Elo | TEX 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.14th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–37 | Road vs home | 49–314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–7 TEX in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.