Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Josh RojasBatting2-3
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to right, Rojas scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Tucker homered to right (419 feet).5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Alvarez homered to right center (439 feet).4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Altuve singled to center, Maldonado scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Maldonado doubled to left, Dubón scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Dubón singled to center, J. Abreu scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Fair odds
- SEA -113
- HOU +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.6 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +33 Elo | SEA 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3046–29 | Road vs home | 41–3312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–8 SEA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.