Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Alvarez homered to left center (410 feet).6–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 36–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Diaz grounded out to second, Tucker scored, McCormick to second.6–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 3McCormick grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Alvarez scored, J. Abreu out at second, Tucker to third.6–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Velázquez homered to right (396 feet).6–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Perez homered to left (410 feet), Witt Jr. scored.5–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Altuve grounded out to third, Diaz scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Duffy homered to left center (364 feet), Loftin scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 2Velázquez homered to right center (380 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Fair odds
- HOU -142
- KC +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.6 – 5.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | KC: Steven Cruz: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +83 Elo | HOU 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–55 | Road vs home | 39–4120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
KC 4–1 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.