Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Altuve singled to right, Kessinger scored, Dubón to second.2–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 8France homered to center (404 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Singleton hit sacrifice fly to right, Diaz scored.1–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Hernández singled to left, Raleigh scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Raleigh singled to right, Rojas scored on error and Rodríguez scored on throwing error by right fielder Tucker, Raleigh to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Rodríguez hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored, Crawford to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Rojas lined out to right, Ford scored on throwing error by second baseman Altuve, France safe at third on error.0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Fair odds
- SEA -110
- HOU +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +14 Elo | SEA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.712th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3047–29 | Road vs home | 41–3413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 3–8 SEA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.