Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah DavisPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman homered to right (412 feet), Rojas scored and Betts scored.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Rojas singled to center, Peralta scored.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Rodgers homered to center (428 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Rojas scored, Freeman to second, Betts to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Betts singled to right, Peralta scored, Rojas to second.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Peralta doubled to left, Outman scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Bouchard homered to left center (437 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Outman homered to right (382 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.1 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +6 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Noah Davis: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +102 Elo | LAD 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3044–32 | Road vs home | 35–4124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 9–2 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.