San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Marco LucianoBatting1-3
- Ross StriplingPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts doubled to center, Barnes scored and Peralta scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Muncy singled to center, Betts scored, Freeman to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 5Freeman doubled to right, Barnes scored, Betts to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 3Martinez doubled to right, Muncy scored and Betts scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike 10–1
- 2Martinez homered to center (406 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- SF +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +20 | SF: John Brebbia: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +103 Elo | LAD 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3034–43 | Road vs home | 51–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 5–3 LAD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.