Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Martinez singled to left, Freeman scored.3–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 7Rojas homered to left (398 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Hernández singled to right, Muncy scored, Hernández thrown out at second, Taylor to third.3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Rogers homered to left (404 feet), Cabrera scored and Carpenter scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 3Martinez homered to left (384 feet), Betts scored and Freeman scored.0–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, Rojas scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 12 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 11 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Martinez homered to right center (381 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -134
- DET +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −13 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 48–262nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.