Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Angels- Randal GrichukBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kenny RosenbergPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grichuk homered to left (390 feet), O'Hoppe scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Fletcher singled to left, Schanuel scored, Fletcher to second.5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Rogers homered to right center (373 feet), Vierling scored and Ibañez scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Carpenter grounded out to first, P. Meadows scored, Ibañez to second, Vierling to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Rogers homered to left (399 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.6 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | DET: Miguel Diaz (no track record yet) · LAA: Jimmy Herget (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +16 Elo | LAA 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–36 | Road vs home | 35–3923rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 2–3 LAA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 5.