Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching2.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stephenson singled to right, Marte scored.6–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 5Carpenter singled to right, Ibañez scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Ibañez doubled to left, Vierling scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 3Bader doubled to center, De La Cruz scored and Votto scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 2India singled to left, De La Cruz scored and Friedl scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 2Friedl singled to right, Stephenson scored, Friedl to second, De La Cruz to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Cabrera singled to right, Rogers scored, Carpenter to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Carpenter singled to left, Torkelson scored, Carpenter to second, Rogers to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Ibañez homered to left (378 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.6 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −13 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +6 Elo | CIN 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–32 | Road vs home | 31–4125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.