Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Angels- David FletcherBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walsh homered to right center (435 feet).11–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–1
- 8Carpenter singled to center, P. Meadows scored and Torkelson scored.11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Torkelson doubled to left, Rogers scored, P. Meadows to third.9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 8Vierling hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored, Rogers to third.8–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Báez doubled to left, Ibañez scored, Nevin scored and Short scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 7Fletcher homered to left (358 feet).4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Rogers homered to center (391 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Báez homered to right center (416 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Torkelson singled to left, Rogers scored, P. Meadows to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 52%
- Fair odds
- LAA -111
- DET +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +12 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAA +14 Elo | LAA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3035–36 | Road vs home | 35–3722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–3 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.