Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Connor PhillipsPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Baddoo doubled to left, P. Meadows scored.4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul4–2
- 4India struck out swinging, Marte scored, Maile caught stealing second, catcher to second to first.4–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Maile grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bader scored, Friedl out at second, Marte to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 3Torkelson homered to right (361 feet), McKinstry scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Friedl tripled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored and Bader scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +12 | CIN: Connor Phillips: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +11 Elo | DET 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 7th of 3039–32 | Road vs home | 31–4226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 1–0 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.