Cincinnati Reds at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Friedl homered to right (402 feet).2–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 8Vierling homered to left center (448 feet), Nevin scored, Baddoo scored and P. Meadows scored.1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Torkelson singled to left, P. Meadows scored, McKinstry to third.1–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Steer homered to left (380 feet).1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Baddoo homered to right (349 feet), Nevin scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Vierling scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Fair odds
- DET -102
- CIN +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | CIN: Derek Law: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +13 Elo | CIN 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.929th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 31–4326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.