Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Zack ShortBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sawyer Gipson-LongPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cabrera singled to right, Carpenter scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Phillips homered to center (399 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 9Walsh homered to center (407 feet), O'Hoppe scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Cabrera singled to center, Carpenter scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Schanuel homered to right (389 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Short homered to left center (400 feet), Nevin scored and Báez scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Fair odds
- LAA -108
- DET +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −9 | DET: Sawyer Gipson-Long: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +10 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 35–3823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–3 LAA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.