Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler HoltonPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy singled to right, Betts scored, Smith to second.2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 8Peralta hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Martinez homered to center (402 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3P. Meadows homered to center (387 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Torkelson homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -138
- DET +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +2 | DET: Miguel Diaz: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +102 Elo | LAD 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 11th of 3038–37 | Road vs home | 49–262nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 LAD in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.