San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fitzgerald homered to left (351 feet), Luciano scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 8Freeman singled to right, Outman scored, Betts to second, Heyward to third.3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Estrada homered to left center (398 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Yastrzemski homered to right (372 feet), Pederson scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Fair odds
- LAD -139
- SF +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −33 | +6 | SF: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +139 Elo | LAD 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.411th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 3033–43 | Road vs home | 51–272nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 4–3 LAD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.