San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Joc PedersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taylor singled to left, Muncy scored, Rojas to second.2–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 8Martinez singled to center, Freeman scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Outman scored on Jackson wild pitch.2–5
- 7Outman scored on Jackson wild pitch.2–5
- 7Taylor scored on Jackson wild pitch, Outman to third on wild pitch by Jackson.2–4
- 7Taylor scored on Jackson wild pitch, Outman to third on wild pitch by Jackson.2–4
- 6Martinez hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pederson homered to center (430 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Fitzgerald walked, Yastrzemski scored, Sabol to second, Luciano to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 41–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 30–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Martinez homered to right (372 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Fair odds
- LAD -133
- SF +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.3 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −7 | SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +93 Elo | LAD 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3033–42 | Road vs home | 50–272nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 4–2 LAD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.