Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Tyler NevinBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Freeman grounded out to shortstop, Barnes scored, Betts to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Ibañez singled to right, Carpenter scored, Ibañez safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Heyward.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Kelly singled to left, P. Meadows scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Muncy homered to right center (428 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelly scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Nevin singled to left, Carpenter scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Fair odds
- LAD -139
- DET +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +3 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +103 Elo | LAD 64.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3038–38 | Road vs home | 50–262nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 LAD in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.