Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting3-4
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hoerner singled to center, Mastrobuoni scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 8Morel homered to center (387 feet).3–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Happ to second, Hoerner to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Gomes doubled to left, Suzuki scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Mastrobuoni scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 2Doyle doubled to left, Tovar scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Díaz scored on Stroman wild pitch, Tovar to second on wild pitch by Stroman.2–1
- 2Díaz scored on Stroman wild pitch, Tovar to second on wild pitch by Stroman.2–1
- 2Díaz singled to center, Bryant scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Happ doubled to right, Hoerner scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 66%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.9 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −5 | COL: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +119 Elo | CHC 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–57 | Road vs home | 43–3614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–2 CHC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.