Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Alexander CanarioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Young tripled to right, Suzuki scored.1–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–14
- 8Bellinger homered to center (438 feet), Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.1–13
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–13
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 8Canario homered to left center, Happ scored, Mastrobuoni scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Canario doubled to left, Morel scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Suzuki homered to center (402 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 3Hayes homered to right center (388 feet).1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Wisdom scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Wisdom doubled to center, Morel scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Swanson homered to center (374 feet), Hoerner scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.3 – 4.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −2 | PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +55 Elo | CHC 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3032–40 | Road vs home | 41–3412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–9 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.