Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Johan OviedoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson homered to center (418 feet), Bellinger scored.8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 9Palacios homered to right center (384 feet), Hayes scored and Suwinski scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Hoerner grounded out to shortstop, Tauchman scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman to third on wild pitch by Holderman.5–3
- 8Mastrobuoni scored on Holderman wild pitch, Tauchman to third on wild pitch by Holderman.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Tauchman doubled to center, Gomes scored, Mastrobuoni to third.5–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 35–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 8Joe singled to center, Bae scored, Joe out stretching at second.5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Bae tripled to right, Triolo scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7Swanson singled to left, Happ scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Andujar singled to left, Hayes scored, Suwinski to second.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 3Andujar doubled to center, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Fair odds
- CHC -121
- PIT +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 5.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +58 Elo | CHC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 42–3514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 2–10 CHC in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.