Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joshua PalaciosBatting2-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peguero grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Joe scored, Triolo out at second, Suwinski to third.13–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play13–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul12–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 212–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 112–7
- 9Triolo reached on infield single to shortstop, Hayes scored, Suwinski to second, Joe to third.12–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–7
- 6Wisdom singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored.11–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play11–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 311–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 211–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–6
- 6Joe homered to left center (428 feet), Reynolds scored.11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–6
- 6Reynolds grounded into fielder's choice to second, Delay scored, Palacios out at second.9–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 5Happ homered to right center (411 feet), Mastrobuoni scored, Tauchman scored and Hoerner scored.8–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 38–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 5Morel homered to left (440 feet).8–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–1
- 5Triolo homered to center (420 feet).8–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–1
- 4Palacios homered to center (412 feet), Peguero scored and Delay scored.7–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Peguero reached on infield single to second, Triolo scored, Davis to second.4–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Fair odds
- CHC -123
- PIT +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.4 – 4.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +7 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 24th of 3032–41 | Road vs home | 42–3412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–10 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.