Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4
- Noah DavisPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Swanson singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bellinger to second.0–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 6Young homered to right center (431 feet), Suzuki scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Suzuki homered to left (394 feet), Swanson scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Suzuki singled to left, Tauchman scored, Bellinger to second, Happ thrown out at home.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 5.0 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | COL: Noah Davis: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +81 Elo | CHC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.17th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–56 | Road vs home | 42–3614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 2–1 CHC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.