Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chase AndersonPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting3-4
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Choi hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7Campusano singled to right, Soto scored, Batten to second, Grisham to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Soto grounded out to second, Bogaerts scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Tovar reached on infield single to shortstop, Jones scored, McMahon to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Rodgers homered to left center (407 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 66%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- COL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.2 – 4.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −3 | COL: Chase Anderson: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +115 Elo | SD 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 29th of 3022–55 | Road vs home | 39–3615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–8 SD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.