Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodgers singled to center, Díaz scored, McMahon to second.9–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking8–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–11
- 9Díaz doubled to left, Jones scored.8–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–11
- 8Blackmon singled to center, Doyle scored.7–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–11
- 8Doyle tripled to right, Rodgers scored.6–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–11
- 6Blackmon hit by pitch, Díaz scored, Doyle to second, Rodgers to third.5–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–11
- 6Jones homered to right (394 feet).4–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–11
- 5Soto singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.3–11
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–11
- 5Bogaerts stole home, Tatis Jr. stole second, Tatis Jr. safe at third on throwing error by catcher Díaz.3–10
- 5Bogaerts stole home, Tatis Jr. stole second, Tatis Jr. safe at third on throwing error by catcher Díaz.3–10
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 33–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–9
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–9
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 5Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored on throwing error by third baseman McMahon, Bogaerts safe at third on error.3–9
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 33–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 13–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–8
- 5Rosario singled to center, Batten scored.3–8
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Fair odds
- SD -129
- COL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.7 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +80 Elo | SD 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 28th of 3022–53 | Road vs home | 37–3618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
COL 4–6 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.